Chris Murray, the lead researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations, has been cited for their prediction modeling work by the White House among numerous other publications. His latest projections have been released and there is some good news to draw from it. While any death is tragic, it is a positive sign to see the projected death toll in America has dropped down to 60k by August 4th, 2020 from earlier projections between 100k and 220k according to IHME. The U.S. is expected to peak [sic] on April 12th, 2020 and drop below 1,000 deaths per day by the end of April.
In addition to this news, the research center also published state-by-state projections of when the peak could hit local areas. This information can be used to help guide businesses on when to expect the surge to protect themselves, their families, their employees, and have a better indication of when we might be on the other side of the apex.
It is to be noted, a peak does not mean an immediate return to life as we know it and these models assume full social distancing through May 2020. Complacency in following CDC guidelines could lead to further outbreaks and smaller peaks that have been described by some as the ‘hammer and the dance’. Furthermore, the model is being updated regularly as new information and more data becomes available.
It can be viewed in its entirety here.